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VC Liquidity Crisis

My prediction: Secondaries replace IPOs. Here's the data that convinced me.

Nov 28, 2025

My prediction: Secondaries replace IPOs. Here's the data that convinced me.

I'm betting on Option C at 70% confidence. Data-backed reasoning, where I could be wrong, and your turn to predict or debate.

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Databricks is worth $62B and has never gone public. Here's how they avoided the liquidity trap.

Nov 27, 2025

Databricks is worth $62B and has never gone public. Here's how they avoided the liquidity trap.

Profitability gives options. Final clue before my take on Friday. Some companies don't need exits.

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Goldman Sachs paid $965M for a secondary market firm. Here's why Wall Street is betting IPOs won't come back.

Nov 26, 2025

Goldman Sachs paid $965M for a secondary market firm. Here's why Wall Street is betting IPOs won't come back.

When the smartest money bets against traditional exits, infrastructure wins. Today's clue - follow the pipes.

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Reddit waited 20 years to IPO. Here's how they knew the window was opening.

Nov 25, 2025

Reddit waited 20 years to IPO. Here's how they knew the window was opening.

Macro timing beats company readiness. Today's clue - patience + perfect signals.

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How Stripe solved the liquidity crisis with a 32% valuation haircut

Nov 24, 2025

How Stripe solved the liquidity crisis with a 32% valuation haircut

What breaks the VC liquidity logjam first? Today: Why manufactured liquidity beats waiting for perfect exits.

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